Tonight in Seattle:  

Election Day Countdown: 1 day to go (OMG the election is TOMORROW!)

The election is tomorrow. Oh. My. GOD. How are you all holding up?

I feel strangely calm and confident, considering what's at stake. I'm just so certain Obama is going to win. And that's not just bravado talking. It's something that the other side doesn't always believe it: science.

Unless McCain cheats, we win. With the odds we've got, he'd have to cheat a LOT. And the Obama legal crew is ready for it. Tomorrow night will be a celebration of the end of eight disastrous years, a triumph of the intellectuals over the zealots. 

Yet somewhere, deeply repressed in my electoral psyche, is lingering fear and doubt. That's why reading this brilliant article (by the even more brilliant Sean Nelson) gave me chills. Election Night 2004 was so incredibly painful; I remember standing in the rain, hugging my equally devastated fella, both of us bawling our eyes out. Nelson perfectly articulated the hopelessness, the humilation, and the abject fear we both felt that night. His eloquent way of placing the template of that fear over the current election made my skin crawl.

To return to my state of zen, I returned to science, even as the media is blathering on about McCain "closing the gap" or what have you. 

I remember months ago, when my very wise pal Kaley said to me: The media has a financial interest in keeping the race as close as possible for as long as possible. They need eyes on the TV on Election Night. Don't be surprised when they try to slant stories to make the race seem more competitive than it is.

And slant, they are. Science, however, trumps pundits. Check it out:

538

I know polls can be biased, but that many polls over that much time showing that much bias? In the words of Ralph Wiggum, that's unpossible!

So don't panic about the news. Just do your part and vote! Stay in line. Volunteer. Bring your pals to the polls. Report anything strange. Remember if they challenge you, you can always ask for a provisional ballot. Yes, you can.

Go get out the VOTE!

 

I'm with you, Dana.

Then, on top of the Presidential election, California (where I'm at) is dealing with propositions about parental notification for abortions and an attempt to outlaw gay marriage via the CA state constitution. Oh, and my boyfriend is running for City Council. Sheeeez.

No one can wait for this to be over. Let's all use our positive energy and hope for the best on SO many fronts, tomorrow.

~Monica~
Arcata, CA

I, too, am feeling relatively calm about the election right now.

That being said, please go out and VOTE.
Polls mean nothing if you don't go out and make it count.

VOTE.

After you've done that, cross your fingers.

(If you haven't figured out where I fall, you can enjoy my final electoral thoughts.)

Obama's grandmother just passed away. My thoughts to her and her family.

I will echo: Obama will win - IF WE ALL VOTE.

If we don't all vote, who knows?

And don't believe exit polls. (Even 538Nate agrees on that one.)

Yeah, exit polls are bunk. Don't believe a word of them ... only trust actual returns.

So, get out there and VOTE.

I'm more of a nervous wreck than anyone else here, I guess, because although I think Obama will win handily, that's not the race I'm worried about. I'm terrified about the idea of Governor Rossi here in Washington. I get that it's easier to get excited about Obama but the outcome of that race isn't in question.

If you look at how Gov. Gregoire handled the issue with the pharmacists wanting to deny people Plan B because of religious beliefs and then look at the (few) things Dino Rossi has said on the issue, it is absolutely essential that he not get to the governor's mansion. And with how close the race was in 2004, this is a race where every vote absolutely, positively makes a difference.

So, yes, vote for Obama - but also don't forget that there's other candidates up for election who NEED every vote they can get. Gregoire is not perfect, I know (neither is Obama), but I don't want to have to comprehend just how bad a Rossi administration can be.

Yeah Washington, send that Dino to extinction!

(Sorry, I couldn't help myself).

ChrisB -- I completely agree. I actually passed on voting for Gregoire last time around. This time, I'm not being so glib about it.

Rossi is NOT change we for Washington we can believe it (don't you hate to see how he's attempting -- successfully, but some measures -- to piggyback on Obama's change message?).

What other candidates/ballot measures do you all feel passionately about?

Like Monica says @1, if you live in California, then mark a big NO on Props. 4 and 8.

Hey Dana...here's my count for tomorrow night:

Obama: 364 (53.2%), McCain: 174 (46.8%)
58 Senate seats (if you count turncoat Joe, which weirdly enough I think you can)
254 House seats

By the way, 538 now has McCain's slice of the pie down to 1.9%...

Also, I think Gregoire pulls it out. Quite possibly Darcy too. Prop. 8 fails in CA and a bit of rationality and appreciation for intellect over hubris begins to return to the land.

Oh, and since this is a music appreciation site and all, here's my vote for best use of music in a political ad (just started airing today, but I think it beautifully sums up all that's going on without a single word other than the music): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbuLchsauKs

We're inside of 24 hours now!

Richard

FYI - Dana's numbers from 538 were Sunday's figures. For today, it's 1.9 percent.

I'm very curious to see how accurate that website's predictions are come Wednesday morning. Hopefully he's as good at predicting politics as he is baseball.

Oh Richard, that ad is beautiful. Here it is embedded:

I hope you and The Grim are right. And that's VERY exciting about the 538 update. 1.9%!?!?! That's the lowest McCain figure yet!

To which I say.... WOOOOOOT!

From 538:

"With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House."

My eyeballs are giddy, looking at that blue center pie! Mmmm, pie!

Also check out: http://www.270towin.com/simulation/ and the subsequent stats page.

The last Gregoire/Rossi poll was +5 Gregoire
The last Burner/Reichert poll was +2 Burner
And the final WA state poll is +15 Obama

On the national level, when then include those will cell phones in proportionate numbers in the poll, Obama's overall lead is between 9 and 11 points.

Also check out: http://www.270towin.com/simulation/ and the subsequent stats page.

The last Gregoire/Rossi poll was +5 Gregoire
The last Burner/Reichert poll was +2 Burner
And the final WA state poll is +15 Obama

On the national level, when then include those will cell phones in proportionate numbers in the poll, Obama's overall lead is between 9 and 11 points.

And for a bit of levity @ Bush's expense, I'm sure many of you have seen the update "Wazzup" commercial, but if not, enjoy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE

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