The election is tomorrow. Oh. My. GOD. How are you all holding up?
I feel strangely calm and confident, considering what's at stake. I'm just so certain Obama is going to win. And that's not just bravado talking. It's something that the other side doesn't always believe it: science.
Unless McCain cheats, we win. With the odds we've got, he'd have to cheat a LOT. And the Obama legal crew is ready for it. Tomorrow night will be a celebration of the end of eight disastrous years, a triumph of the intellectuals over the zealots.
Yet somewhere, deeply repressed in my electoral psyche, is lingering fear and doubt. That's why reading this brilliant article (by the even more brilliant Sean Nelson) gave me chills. Election Night 2004 was so incredibly painful; I remember standing in the rain, hugging my equally devastated fella, both of us bawling our eyes out. Nelson perfectly articulated the hopelessness, the humilation, and the abject fear we both felt that night. His eloquent way of placing the template of that fear over the current election made my skin crawl.
To return to my state of zen, I returned to science, even as the media is blathering on about McCain "closing the gap" or what have you.
I remember months ago, when my very wise pal Kaley said to me: The media has a financial interest in keeping the race as close as possible for as long as possible. They need eyes on the TV on Election Night. Don't be surprised when they try to slant stories to make the race seem more competitive than it is.
And slant, they are. Science, however, trumps pundits. Check it out:
- Gallup closed their election polls as of yesterday. The final poll has it at Obama 55%, McCain 44%.
- Pollster has it at Obama 311 to McCain 142.
- MSNBC just stated that Obama has been up in the last 111 National polls.
- And best of all, the statistical genius of 538 has a 96.3% chance of an Obama win. I dreamed for months of seeing a pie chart like this on the brink of the election, and here it is:
I know polls can be biased, but that many polls over that much time showing that much bias? In the words of Ralph Wiggum, that's unpossible!
So don't panic about the news. Just do your part and vote! Stay in line. Volunteer. Bring your pals to the polls. Report anything strange. Remember if they challenge you, you can always ask for a provisional ballot. Yes, you can.
Go get out the VOTE!